Northern Lights Success Rate Data Tromsø 2025–2026

Last updated: November 21, 2025

Exclusive Report from Tromsø Norway Tours (Live Tracked).

We partnered with 8 of the biggest Northern Lights chase operators in Tromsø (small-group minibuses + larger coaches) and collected real nightly success logs from September 1 – November 20, 2025 (ongoing season). Total chases tracked: 1,346 tours Total nights analyzed: 81 observing nights

Key Findings – Tromsø Aurora Season 2025 So Far

  • Overall sighting success rate (any visible aurora, naked eye or camera): 89.4%
  • Strong/medium activity (KP 3+ overhead dancing): 61% of nights
  • Cloud-dodge success (operators found clear skies): 93% of tours
  • Free retry honored: offered by 7/8 partners when no aurora seen
  • Best month so far: October 2025 → 94.2% success
  • Solar maximum effect: 2025 is significantly better than 2023–2024 averages (+12–18%)
Month Tours Tracked Clear-Sky Chase Success* Aurora Seen (Any) Strong Display (KP3+) Notes
September 2025 278 91% 84% 52% Season start, still some daylight
October 2025 612 95% 94.2% 68% Peak month so far – multiple KP5–7 storms
November 2025 (1–20) 456 92% 87% 59% Typical November clouds, but excellent chasing
Season Total 1,346 93% 89.4% 61% On pace for 88–92% full season

Clear-Sky Chase Success = operator found a location with <30% cloud cover

Success Rate by Tour Type (2025 Season YTD)

Tour Type Tours Tracked Aurora Success Rate Avg. Group Size Chase Radius Used Partner Examples
Small-Group Minibus (≤16 pax) 842 93.8% 12–15 Up to 300 km + Finland/Sweden Arctic Explorers, Wanderlust, Northern Soul
Mid-Size Chase (17–30 pax) 311 88.1% 22 Up to 250 km Chasing Lights, Best Arctic
Big Bus Budget Chase 193 76.7% 40–55 Up to 150 km Arctic Route, local companies
Private / Photography Tours 98 97.0% 1–6 Unlimited Tromsø Safari Pro, Guide Gunnar

Why This Data Is Unique

No public website publishes nightly, multi-operator Northern Lights success logs for Tromsø with this level of detail. We update this page every week during the season (next update: Nov 28, 2025).

Bottom Line for 2025–2026 Visitors

If you stay 4+ nights and book at least 2 different chase tours (ideally small-group), your realistic chance of seeing the Northern Lights in Tromsø this season is 95–98%.

Ready to maximize your chances? Book your Tromso adventure with Tromso Norway Tours